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Collective action clauses 59 How Basel II affects developing-country risk weights 62 57 3. Both South and North stand to benefit from the recovery now under way in the global economy, which coincides with a rebound in financial flows to developing countries. The key question for policymakers is how to channel these gains into investments that promote development and sustainable poverty reduction. The external environment for developing countries improved in as global growth gained momentum and as private capital flows recovered from the subdued levels of the past five years. The recovery in private flows was encouraged by expansionary monetary policies in the advanced economies and structural improvements in the developing world.
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E-COMMERCE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2002

Collective action clauses 59 How Basel II affects developing-country risk weights 62 57 3. Both South and North stand to benefit from the recovery now under way in the global economy, which coincides with a rebound in financial flows to developing countries.

The key question for policymakers is how to channel these gains into investments that promote development and sustainable poverty reduction. The external environment for developing countries improved in as global growth gained momentum and as private capital flows recovered from the subdued levels of the past five years. The recovery in private flows was encouraged by expansionary monetary policies in the advanced economies and structural improvements in the developing world.

There are, however, important risks that need to be addressed. High-income countries need to adjust toward a more balanced pattern of economic growth and more sustainable financing of current account imbalances.

The U. Should the resolution of imbalances in the advanced economies eventually require an abrupt adjustment in international financial markets, including a sharp increase in interest rates, the flow of capital to developing countries might be adversely affected. Structural measures to promote stability should continue to be pursued, including lengthening the maturity and depth of markets for emerging-market bonds, enhanced transparency and adherence to standards and codes, and the inclusion of collective action clauses in international bond covenants.

It will be important for governments in developing countries to maintain prudent macroeconomic policies and to persevere with reforms designed to consolidate the improvement in credit quality.

Maintaining the confidence of investors and creditors, particularly in the face of political uncertainties linked to forthcoming elections in several countries, will be important, as will be avoiding an accumulation of excessive, especially short-term, debt. Pursuing these measures will reduce their vulnerability to adverse financial shocks. To maximize the development impact of these cyclical gains, capital flows should be channeled into areas where they can lay the foundation for long-term economic growth, international competitiveness, and the expansion of trade.

Increased investment in infrastructure stands out as an urgent need, with more than a billion people lacking access to safe drinking water, 2. Promoting new capital investment in infrastructure requires promoting balanced publicprivate partnerships, with appropriate risk distribution.

International financial institutions can support this process by creating the conditions under which unmet needs can be converted into investment opportunities that are attractive to global capital markets. Access to capital flows must be broadened. With the exception of trade finance, private capital flows remain heavily concentrated in a few countries and regions. In , just ten countries accounted for 69 percent of foreign direct investment in the developing world, while only five accounted for 60 percent of total bond issuance.

Official development assistance is still an important source of external finance for many countries. But, as private capital flows have rebounded, official aid flows have risen only slightly and remain below the levels needed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

The current xii volume provides analysis and summary tables on selected macroeconomic indicators and financial flows. A separate volume contains detailed, standardized external debt statistics for countries. More information on the analysis, including additional material, sources, background papers, and a platform for interactive dialogue on the key issues can be found at www.

The principal author was Mansoor Dailami, with direction by Uri Dadush. The main authors for each chapter were as follows: Ratika Narag Consultant and Heather Milkiewicz Brookings Institution provided research assistance to appendix A and chapter 2, respectively. They are posted in the online version of the report. Outside the Bank, several people contributed through meetings, exchanges of views, and sharing perspectives on emerging issues.

Maria Amparo Gamboa and Katherine Rollins provided assistance to the team. Overview and Policy Messages: The rapid turnaround in private flows from the subdued levels of the two previous years occurred in all regions, except the Middle East and North Africa.

Flows to Europe and Central Asia were particularly strong, as eight transition countries approached accession to the European Union in May At the same time, the credit quality of developing countries improved markedly, and investor confidence is returning. More than ever, global capital flows, trade, and exchange-rate policies are intricately linked. The challenge for international financial policymakers will be to ensure that the cyclical recovery in flows can be sustained over the medium term, and that it can be channeled into areas, such as infrastructure, where it can lay the foundations for sustained growth and poverty reduction, thereby helping to meet the Millennium Development Goals.

It will be important to maintain investor confidence, while avoiding the excesses—and increased vulnerability—that have accompanied surges in lending to developing countries in the past. At the same time, aid flows have to increase.

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